The New Gold Rush

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by IMPUL, Oct 15, 2014.

  1. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/list-eng.php

    http://marijuanastocks.com/category/tags/Canada

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/31/medical-marijuana-mining-penny-stocks_n_5062688.html

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/4-stocks-winning-canadas-medical-marijuana-market.html/?a=viewall

    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/7-companies-capitalizing-on-canadian-cannabis-cm322295

    Since Health Canada started issuing medical marijuana in 2001, the number of users has grown exponentially from 500 to over 37,000 today. Health Canada forecasts that the number will increase to as many as 450,000 by 2024.

    This rapid growth is one of the reasons behind the program’s overhaul — Health Canada says it has led to "unintended consequences" and "abuse" — but it also means the commercial industry could be worth $1.3 billion by 2024, according to the forecast.

    Are there daily amount and duration restrictions under the Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations?
    Various surveys published in peer-reviewed literature have suggested that the majority of people using inhaled or orally ingested cannabis for medical purposes reported using approximately 1-3 grams of cannabis per day.
    While there are no restrictions under the new Marihuana for Medical Purposes Regulations on the daily amount that you may recommend, there is a possession cap of the lesser of 150 grams or 30 times the daily amount.
    The medical document must be completed annually (or sooner if you recommend a shorter duration) to ensure that you continue to support your patient's use of marijuana.
    We recommend you consult the document entitled Information for Health Care Professionals: Cannabis (marihuana, marijuana) and the Cannabinoids for further information.


    there is speculation that somewhere between 3-7 grams are required per day per patient
    at a rate not below $7/gr and cannot fall below $6/gr as that is the processors cost. the avg. is closer to $9
    the producer can charge $3/gr to the processer, the processer $6 to the retailor. the retailor sells for $7-$12gr ( this is based on usa market but is very similar to canadas model and since there is a push for recreation use it is likely that Canada adopts their model and makes some tweeks to make it like purchasing alcohol. MCBO?

    so lets do some simple math;
    37,500 x 3gr = 112,500 gr / day min to 262,500gr.
    112,500 x $3= $337,500
    262,500 x $3= $787,500 that's right 3/4 of a million a day in production.
    total cost to user = $3, 150, 000.00 (if 262,500gr/day)

    $3,150,000 x 0.13 ( hst ) = $409,500 a day in tax just from the end user
    $787,500 x 0.13 ( hst )=$ 102,375 a day in taxes from the producers and similar for the processers

    for a grand total of $614,250.00 of potential tax revenue per day with todays current patient and useage numbers.

    now in 10 years there is speculation that 450,000 people will participate in the program.

    even if the usage is 1 gr. per person per day. 450,000gr x 12 = $5,400,000.00 and $702,000.00 hst/day
    that is still a "medical market" now add the speculated recreational market.

    I think the only reason its not legal yet is simply that they cant control the supply yet.
    once the " licensed commercial producers" can supply the demand of its current and future market, then they can expand without the risk of "black market" explosion.

    Current stats about marijuana use :

    canadas current pop; 35.16mil.
    • Estimated number of marijuana users in Canada: 2.3 million
    • Average age of introduction to marijuana: 15 years old
    • Number of people aged 12 - 17 who use daily: 225,005
    • 10% of regular users develop dependency
    • Annual Canadian consumption: 770,000 kg.
    • Annual production: 2.6 million kg.
    • Amount of domestic production consumed in Canada: 30%
    • Number of grow operations: 215,000
    • Number of people employed in grow operations: 500,000
    • Price of 1 ounce of top grade product (enough to produce 20-50 joints: $250
    • Annual number of arrests for all offences concerning illegal drugs: 90,000
    • Number of reported marijuana offences (1999): 35,000
    • Number of reported marijuana offences in 2001: 71,600 (70% for possession)
    • Annual cost of enforcing marijuana laws (police and courts): $500 million
    • Estimated annual costs associated with substance abuse in Canada: $1.4 billion for illegal drugs; $7.5 billion for alcohol and $9.6 billion for tobacco.
    - http://www.med.uottawa.ca/sim/data/Marijuana_e.htm


    164,250,000gr or 164,250kg annual requirement at 1gr /day/person ( medical)

    The reason im using habitual use as a model is because the medical community is the current model and they require daily use. Also the first rush of "legal" recreational use would likely be daily consumers like with alcohol. Im also kinda assuming the higher use of some will offset the infrequent use by others. Only time will tell.
    The taxes. I know your thinking "but medication isn't taxed like that". but marijuana is going to be federally taxed. Which also leads me to believe it wil become recreation sooner rather then later.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2014
  2. Greg

    Greg Local Grumpy Moderator

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    Can you give me the cliff notes from that?
     
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  3. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    buy weed stock ... its gold before gold was gold ... Like buying ibm /apple/bell stock as they released their IPO type stuff
    I'm leaning towards tweed
    http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.twd/tweed-marijuana-inc

    tho it seems their first delivery was similar to organigrams. ( it was weak) I liked organigram because they were a minerals explorer or something before they switched.

    The problem is the quality was low and they want to expand 5 fold with that inferior pot
    http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote/v.ogi/organigram-holdings-inc
    http://fjet.ca/Financial-information

    they at least have stock background so their numbers are probably better and they can hold the line better then some others who are weed growers turned investor. vs a investor turn weed partner. either way spread your wealth around and profit off weed legally.

    its legal money printing. can you imagine all 770,000kg being sold legally ..
    or the full 2.6 million kg ?
    $9,240,000,000.00 / year cost to end user + 1,201,200,000.00 in hst

    $31,200,000,000.00 a year is what Canada produces illegally a year @$12 a gr.

    so we are at the beginning of a HUGE market. even today. but the potential for future development and international profit is literally limitless.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2014
  4. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    that's still long . buy weed stocks. its gold.
     
  5. Wolfd89

    Wolfd89 Last in, first out

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    Weed>Gold
     
  6. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    Thx D!
    Lol

    Sorry for the horrible grammar and spelling. I fixed some of it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2014
  7. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    https://www.greenwaveadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/GreenWave_Report_ES.pdf


    U.S. retail marijuana sales revenues could reach ~ $35 billion/year by 2020, if full legalization occurs in all 50 States and D.C. Our analysis provides full transparency of our revenue projections. These are determined state-by-state, for both the medical and adult use retail marijuana markets. This forecast does not suggest a terminal value but merely, what we think retail revenues (and sales and excise tax collections) could look like during the first year in which marijuana is sold legally in all 50 states and D.C. (Note that these estimates do not include the wholesale market, ancillary revenues, etc.) Alternatively, assuming the most likely progression of legalization, our revenue expectations would be approximately $21 billion by 2020 (Table 2).

    2020 - possibly fully legal in usa, and $20B-$35B in annual sales.

    Health Canada had said its allowing more licenses to the tune of 500,000. By 2024. So it is quite plausable that we will become fully legal.

    And a new insustry is born.
     
  8. CDE

    CDE New Member

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    My uncle actually rents out a small warehouse space to a producer. I've talked with him and even toured the set up and he says it is a huge pain in the ass. He actually got out of it just recently because he was bleeding money.
     
  9. kingsoup

    kingsoup New Member

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    Holy cow Impul, you went math crazy here dude! So you're calculating the potential market for legalized marijuana if the NDP gets into federal government and getting in on a company that would have inital rights to bring it to market? Not a bad idea! Thats what I'm guessing you said, the posts were quite long and had a whole lot of numbers in them )
     
  10. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    I had no idea what the potential market could be, except massive.

    Ive always wanted to get into a new industry as it was being born. Like having apple/ibm/bell stock from IPO.

    When medical started expanding it caught my interest and started digging for and numbers I could find or with relatively common knowledge speculate.

    It blew my mind. Then I thought about usa which is 10x the market...

    Now theres REAL talk that there could be a recreational market across NA by 2025-2030.

    This kinda makes you think "they" are scaling the production to be able to handle the market demand in a recreational market to dilute the black market. Ie. If weed were available like cigarettes ( tax revenue) the black market would be drastically reduced. Thus no reason to pursue it as a criminal offence. ( gov-savings )

    My last post here was a market analysis report. I think? I still really new at this stuff. But even I can see theres a ton of money here and I wants me a piece of it.
     
  11. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    I guess he was only using lights.
    Thats the huge barrier to growing.
    Cost of electricity. Whats worse is then you have to use more electricity to cool the space.

    Some of the producers has glass greenhouses . Massive spaces.
     
  12. CDE

    CDE New Member

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    I actually bumped into him the other day and he is back full swing. I guess the laws recently changed again? His is pretty small, but I know there are some huge ones here in the Okanagan. There's also been a few illegal ones out in the bush that were discovered recently because of the forest fires. lol
     
  13. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/...my?utm_source=vicefbcaads&utm_campaign=Canada

    Estimated Canadian usage by 2018
    655 metric tonnes
    Or about $5bil retail

    -

    Last year, the United States cannabis market grew at a faster pace than the early 2000 dot-com industry and with Canada moving to legalize recreational cannabis by 2018, the North American cannabis market is expected to exceed $20.2 billion by the year 2020. The New York Stock Exchange recently listed its first cannabis industry IPO, Innovative Industrial Properties, a real estate investment trust investing in medical marijuana properties. And today, over 30 countries have reformed cannabis laws.

    -
    https://www.merryjane.com/culture/fun-cannabis-history-facts/business-and-legalization
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2017
  14. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    Update:

    Newspapers and media outlets now dubbing “green the new gold” lol
    There are approximately 300+ LPs (licensed commercial producers)
    Average medical daily usage 2.5gr/day
    Here’s where it gets interesting.
    Lp are only approved to supply medical industry.
    The new standard / micro license is the recreational production license.

    So all the “news”(fakenews,lol) you hear about company xyz makes deal with New Brunswick or Quebec to provide rec.market with cannabis are “letters of intent” which only happen once it’s legalized and they possess the correct license to sell to the province.

    But wait? If technically they are NOT allowed to sell to the rec market yet why didn’t the average joe get a chance to even bid on the contact?!?

    How are there shortages for medical supply? Too much supply locked away and ear marked for rec. market day one?

    This legal-lies-ation has been a total farce.

    Patients are filing statements of claim with the federal court for interm relief due to horrendously long (constitutionally wrong) wait times for health Canada issued paperwork after the doctor has already authorized them to grow cannabis at home for therapeutic-medicinal purposes.

    http://johnturmel.com/kits.htm

    The regulations basically leave the patient stuck paying $10+ per gram plus excise tax $1/gr and HST and delivery from an LP until healthcanada produces the MCR#

    Which is pretty sweet if you a liberal party member, turned cannabis mogul. Cannabis Wheaton, tweed, mettrum and several others are run by politicians and police.

    They have even started streaming deals where the new company will get funding from them but they own 1/2 their company and get 1/2 of each harvest.

    Good thing we are getting rid of all the organized crime element **eye roll**

    While we are talking about crime, before there were 6 offences pertaining to cannabis.
    Now there are 47+ offences all federal.


    Standard vs micro license;
    The main differences are with micro you don’t need to record and store video ( which you would probably do anyways )

    you don’t need an alarm system ( which again you probably would do anyways or would be required by your insurance company to have one in place )

    Canopy size limit:
    200m2 or 2,153sqft
    Annual production limit
    600kg or 1320LBS

    No more “Scrooge McDuck” type value for storage, just a log sheet of in and out

    Most indoor companies will basically split there revenue 3 ways cost of production, taxes, and profit

    Depending on the extras costs like salaries testing record keeping insurance premiums and misc

    There might be little profit for the micro ops unless they can keep cost down.

    The ones using Skeleton crews with simple but effective automation and inexpensive useable materials with reduced hydro expenses are the ones going to reap the profits

    Also pay attention to size of warehouse. Most micro ops should fit nicely inside a 5000-10000 sq ft space. Too small or too big should give you an idea something not right.

    Anyone trading in LP stock should be holding or buying, like, last week.

    There will be a steady rise now through 2020

    Do your research though. There is already insider trading being caught and this heavily volatile market can make or lose you money day trading.

    As much as I don’t like cannabiswheaton/Wheaton income

    their model is set to have explosive growth because they have a little bit of everything, have a large volume of product, and have high friends in places

    Tweed and aurora are the 2 other heavy hitter. Aurora is killing it.

    —peace
     
  15. Greg

    Greg Local Grumpy Moderator

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    I don't get, if it's legal/illegal/grey area, and all these dispenseries popped up overnight it seems (around here at least), and none have a business licence by the city, how do they get to stay open? Someone explain that, or is it back alley deals with envelopes of cash?
     
  16. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    Each region has to enforce or not.

    Imagine trying to close gas stations. There’s just too many. They just keep opening back up.

    Basically the same reason everyone can drive 20km over on the highway, and traffic laws are only enforced the last week of the month.lol.

    If your thinking “why won’t someone think of the children? “

    Toronto’s first lcbo cannabis store is 450metre from a school in a plaza the students frequent for lunch and after school.
    Victoria park and gerrard lol
     
  17. Greg

    Greg Local Grumpy Moderator

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    I'm not one of the 'think of the children' type. I just don't get it. Whatever business it is, no licence, no open. Black and white...but I guess there is ALWAYS a grey area...
     
  18. IMPUL

    IMPUL Collector of fine japanese lawn ornaments

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    I think they just want them to fill the gap for now and make enough money to seize when they shut them down